Before vs. After Venables: Offense

In the last post, we discussed the defense Brent Venables brought to Oklahoma since taking over in December 2021. Today, we will talk about the offense, using metrics similar to the one in the post about the defense.

Photo credit to 107.7 The Franchise, editing done by me.

Stats

Our last two head coaches could not have been more different. On the one hand, you have Lincoln Riley, the offensive/quarterback guru who believes speed and scheme are the keys to winning games. On the other, you have Brent Venables, the defensive mastermind who believes toughness and aggressiveness are the keys to winning games. Both sides have their merit. And given Lincoln Riley's past with offenses and quarterbacks (3 heisman trophy winners and one runner-up), one might think the offense would take a hit when Venables took over. Let's look at the stats and see what changed.

	2021	2022	2023
Points Per Game	39.1	32.8	41.7
Total Yards Per Game	450.1	474	507
Pass Yards Per Game	263.5	254.6	324.8
Rush Yards Per Game	186.6	219.4	182.2
Pass TDs	32	27	34
Rush TDs	29	28	32
3rd Down %	42.86%	40.51%	49.15%
4th Down %	68.75%	40.74%	68.42%
Turnovers	12	15	20

I'm sorry. What??

Analysis

Let's take a moment to look at what we're seeing. In almost every category, the offense was better in 2023 than in 2021. The offense of a defensive-minded head coach was better than the offense of one of the best offensive minds around. I was not prepared for these results.

In 2021, we had a stacked offense. Let's look at some of the players who were the main starters for the offense:

• Spencer Rattler, 5-star QB, #1 QB in the 2019 class.

• Caleb Williams, 5-star QB, #2 QB in the 2021 class (and 2024 #1 overall NFL Draft pick).

• Jadon Haselwood, 5-star WR, #1 WR in the 2019 class.

• Marvin Mims, 4-star WR, #26 WR in the 2020 class.

• Austin Stogner, 4-star TE, #2 TE in the 2019 class.

If you had to draw up the best-case scenario offense, it wouldn't look too much different from that. It was also, by no means, a bad offense. It was a good/solid offense. However, given the offenses OU fans had gotten used to, led by Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, on top of what the offense looked like in 2020, this year was a letdown. We entered the season ranked #2 in the country, with Rattler expected to go #1 in the 2021 NFL Draft. Averaging almost 40 points per game will win you most games, and it won us 11 games (ten regular season games and the bowl game). But the offense was one of the biggest reasons we lost those two games. Spencer Rattler was a shadow of his 2020 self. We couldn't run the ball as well as we wanted to. Our receivers couldn't get open like they had so well in the past. So what was the issue? The lack of a physical team. Lincoln Riley's offense has always relied on clever schemes that make you cover every inch of the field and, in turn, leave players wide open in the passing game. When teams started trying to figure that out, you can burn them with the run. The problem with that is you need a physical team to find sustained success with that. Receivers running all over the place slow down as the game progresses. Smaller/weaker offensive linemen get tired and worn down with each block. So we couldn't find any sustained success when we went up against tougher, more physical teams, such as Nebraska, West Virginia, and Baylor. Against those three teams combined, we scored only five offensive touchdowns. The point of this is to illustrate that, despite the sheer talent we had on our team, poor strength and conditioning kept them from playing well for four quarters. We will discuss the coaching miscues later in this post.

2022 was a very confusing year on offense, and the roster overhaul didn't help matters. We lost both of our starting quarterbacks from the previous year, a few good receivers, our starting tight-end, our best running back, and we had to rely heavily on the transfer portal. Added to this mess was a completely new coaching staff and offensive system. Dillon Gabriel coming in at the last minute from UCLA is the only reason this team won 6 games in 2022. So, what made this team so confusing? It was the fact that we had WRs who consistently had issues with dropping passes but had one of the most dominant run games in the country. It was the fact that we scored 52 points a week after getting shut out. It was how we gained almost 300 yards of offense and scored 28 points in the first quarter of bedlam, but we gained only 136 yards and scored no points the rest of the game. You never knew which OU offense you were going to get. What only hurt matters was that we didn't have a good backup quarterback. When Dillon Gabriel went down against TCU and had to sit out against Texas, our offense was dead. So, what could we rely on in 2022? Eric Gray. He ran for over a thousand yards and gave us one of college football's most dominant run games. He was one of the biggest reasons we could find so much success. Dillon Gabriel did his best, but it often came short for various reasons.

After seeing the offense in 2021 that disappointed us and the offense in 2022 that you couldn't rely on for consistency, OU fans didn't know what to expect going into the 2023 season. I can say with certainty that we hadn't expected OU's best offense since Jalen Hurts and Ceedee Lamb in 2019. The strides Dillon Gabriel took to improve his passing and running ability from 2022 made him a completely different quarterback. With the hiring of Emmett Jones, our wide receivers became an elite unit that made phenomenal catches seem easy. The run game struggled at the beginning of the year, which explains the dip in production from 2022, but Gavin Sawchuk went on a tear in the second half of the season. And the most significant difference from 2022? With two notable exceptions (Oklahoma State and Kansas), when we needed the offense to go down and win the game, they did. OU had one of the best offenses in the country, Dillon Gabriel was playing like a Heisman contender, and the wide receivers became one of the most elite units at their position in the country. The coaches took full credit for the two games where we couldn't go down and win the game with our offense—making poor decisions in the fourth quarter against Kansas and calling a horrible play on the last drive of the game against Oklahoma State. Our offense had other issues in those games, but those coaching decisions were some of the most significant factors. On top of this, after Brayden Willis dominated the TE position in 2022, we had almost no production from the TE room in 2023. While the turnovers may seem alarming, remember that six came in the season's last game against Arizona. I wish that game had gone differently, too, but remember: this was true freshman Jackson Arnold's first career start, and he was playing with a new offensive coordinator running a different system against a top-30 defense. Jackson Arnold made some throws I'm sure he wanted to take back, but they're throws a true freshman needs to make to learn how to be better in the future. Finally, Jalil Farooq losing so many fumbles during the year did nothing to help our team.

So what made the 2023 offense so good, other than the players elevating their level of play? Look at the earlier paragraph when I said what Venables believes wins football games. Oklahoma was a team that refused to be pushed around in 2023. While our offensive line didn't play their best season, they could go for all 60 minutes without missing a beat. Our running backs refused to go down with first contact. Dillon Gabriel made an art of running over defenders. Finally, our wide receivers never hesitated to lower their shoulder against opposing defensive backs or linebackers. The team could play a 60-minute football game looking just as energized, refreshed, strong, and energized in the fourth quarter as they did in the first. Having that strong of a football team made all the difference.

Finishing The Game

As I mentioned in the post about defense, games are won and lost in the fourth quarter. So, how did Oklahoma do in the fourth quarter of the last three seasons?

	2021	2022	2023
4th Quarter Points Scored (Offense Only)	106	63	83
Total 4th Quarter TDs Scored	15	9	12
Average Per Game	8.15	4.85	6.38
Rushing Yards	646	561	530
Passing Yards	712	440	604
Rushing TDs	11	5	7
Passing TDs	4	4	5

I'm not going to lie; seeing the regression from 2021 to 2023 surprised me. Let's discuss what the statistics prove and what they don't account for.

The 2021 numbers were boosted significantly by the game against Texas. I will always appreciate Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams, and Kennedy Brooks for this game. The offense knew what it needed to do to complete the comeback, and it did. They scored three touchdowns, including one with three seconds left in the game. In 2022, we only scored a fourth-quarter touchdown in six games. It's no wonder why we lost so many games that year. Now, what don't the numbers account for?

Each season has some exceptions, but the numbers don't give situational awareness. We had a big fourth quarter against Texas in 2021 but were shut out in the fourth quarter against Tulane. We barely hung on to win that game 40-35. Sure, we scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter against Baylor, but we were losing by three touchdowns toward the end of the quarter when we scored. Then there were the games we should've won dominantly in 2021. We scored two combined fourth-quarter touchdowns in those games against Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, and Baylor (we were 9-0 heading into this game). Tulane, Nebraska, and West Virginia almost beat us because of our offense's inability to score in the fourth quarter.

In 2022, those numbers don't account for the defense. Our opposition scored three in games where we scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. And in games where we got shut out in the fourth quarter, our defense would (usually) stand tall. It was a very inconsistent season.

In 2023, we didn't need to score too much in the fourth quarter because we dominated teams. Going into the fourth quarters against Arkansas State, Tulsa, Iowa State, West Virginia, and TCU, our offense had put up so much that they could've been shut down, and we would've been fine. But what happened when we needed to win a close game? Two beautiful drives in the fourth quarter against SMU put the low-scoring affair to bed. A legacy drive from Dillon Gabriel won us the Golden Hat when he was given only 1:17 to win the game. Gavin Sawchuk scored to give us an eight-point lead against UCF, then gave us the lead against BYU in the fourth quarter. Yet poor coaching decisions cost us the game in the fourth quarter of two games. Against Kansas, we only needed a first down, and we would've won the game. We only needed a field goal to tie the game against Oklahoma State. But the playcalling of Jeff Lebby prevented us from doing either one. After the Kansas game, he admitted that the objective was not to get a first down but to pin Kansas deep in their own territory (why). When we had the ball on fourth and five, he called a three-yard out route to Drake Stoops (then blamed him for running the wrong route). Multiple offensive and defensive failures led to those losses, but the coaching collapse sealed the deal.

So, with all the talk above about the situations OU was in and the coaching decisions in those games, let's look at the halftime adjustments. What year did we do better in the second half than the first?

	2021	2022	2023
1st Half Rushing TDs	13	17	18
1st Half Passing TDs	18	16	21
2nd Half Rushing TDs	16	11	14
2nd Half Passing TDs	14	11	13
Total 1st Half TDs	31	33	39
Total 2nd Half TDs	30	22	27

This is yet another example of a somewhat misleading statistic. OU was better offensively in the second half of 2021 than in 2022 or 2023, but they needed to be. OU had a great defense in 2023 that allowed our offense to rest. There were six games where we didn't allow any fourth-quarter points. Our offense was afforded the luxury in 2023 of taking it easy for most of the season in the second half. Where the defense would collapse in the second half of games in 2021 and 2022, they would shine in 2023.

Conclusion

I am very confident about the Oklahoma offense heading into 2024. We have a proven offensive line coach, a five-star quarterback at the reigns, one of the best running backs in college football, and one of the best wide receiver rooms in college football. We are a more physical, intelligent, disciplined, and explosive football team, and I can't wait to see what we do in 2024. The SEC isn't ready for this Oklahoma offense.

All stats above courtesy of cfbstats.com and ESPN.