Game Preview: Auburn

Last week's result was bound to happen at some point. You can't have a schedule as difficult as Oklahoma's this year and not have a few disappointing results. But last week is over. Let's move on and talk about this week's game against Auburn.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma enters week five coming off a 25-15 loss to Tennessee, giving the Sooners their first loss of the season. See the graphic above for a list of Oklahoma's statistical leaders from this season.

There's no sugarcoating it. Oklahoma's offense is in dire straits. They need anything and everything to start going their way if we want to have a winning record with our schedule. The offensive line has been abysmal. The running backs have been inconsistent. The wide receivers are beat up. And now we have our backup quarterback taking over the starting job. Things could not look worse for Oklahoma right now. On top of this, there's yesterday's injury report. Deion Burks was the only healthy one of our top five receivers each week. Yesterday's injury report states he's questionable this week. Things look bleak. That said, the emergence of Michael Hawkins Jr. against Tennessee gave us hope. On top of that, Brent Venables stated in his press conference this week that we'd simplify the offense playcalling. Because of this, I anticipate Oklahoma will abandon the RPO game this week. Make it clear to the offensive line each play where they need to be. This simplified playcalling will take a lot of the decision-making out of Hawkins' hands and allow him to run the offense. Will this open up the run game and provide better pass protection? Maybe. Is anything better than what we've been doing? Absolutely. I would also anticipate the offense to slow down. Instead of quick passes, they'll let Michael Hawkins read through the defense and put the ball where it needs to be. I'm intrigued to see which receivers can step up this week. I predict that Jaquaize Pettaway will fill the void in our receiver room.

The Oklahoma defense is a monster. There's no other way to put it. We heard a lot of "this defense hasn't played anyone yet." We went up against one of the best offenses in college football and held them to two touchdowns. Two. That same offense against Oklahoma from 2017-2021 would've scored at least 50. We have playmakers all over the field. The problem is that we're losing them quickly. Dasan McCullough is out, Kendel Dolby is likely out for the year, and Jacobe Johnson is potentially switching to wide receiver. While our starters are elite, we're losing the competitive depth that makes our defense so consistent. Because of this, I predict OU plays an aggressive yet (somewhat) safe defense. Zac Alley will call plays that allow the defense to pressure the quarterback they're so used to and shut down the run lanes while keeping our starters fresh and not needing to replace our players multiple times per drive. Ideally, this means a lot of three-and-outs and/or turnovers. Given the state of the Auburn offense, that shouldn't be too much of an ask. Any success Auburn will find will have to be through the air because of this.

Auburn

Auburn is coming off a 24-14 loss to Arkansas in week four. Despite Hugh Freeze's wishes for nine more matchups, they only had one, which they lost. See the graphic above for a list of their statistical leaders this season.

Auburn's offense is very balanced. They have called almost exactly a 50/50 split between passes (116) and runs (114). Their solid offensive line gives them the opportunity to succeed in both. Do they succeed in both, though? No. Their run game is solid. The team averages 6.2 yards per carry, with Jarquez Hunter averaging 7.1 yards per carry on 48 attempts. He is a solid running back who can find space quickly, make people miss, and fight hard for extra yards. He also has 11 runs of 20+ yards on the season, almost once every four runs. His one issue? Ball security. Three fumbles in four games (two against New Mexico?) is not ideal. Then there's the air "attack." For their 13 total passing touchdowns, they have eight interceptions. They can't figure out who their starting QB should be because neither of them (Payton Thorne or Hank Brown) can consistently move the offense down the field or keep from turning it over. Because of this, I predict we will see a heavy dose of the run from Auburn. The run defense is Oklahoma's strongest unit. But when you have such a proven player at running back and so many questions at quarterback, on top of going against one of the best defenses in college football, you need to stick to your strengths. Auburn's strength is the run game; we will see much of it.

Auburn's defense is a bit of a question mark this year. They have put up the numbers of an alright defense but against terrible teams. How good are they against really good teams? We don't know. To make matters worse, they're an inconsistent bunch. In four games, they have 63 quarterback hurries. That's almost 16 per game. Of those, they have only hit the opposing quarterback 22 times (5.5 times per game) and have only sacked them eight times (two per game). Given their opposition, it's alarming that they can't get more hits against their opposing quarterback. Eugene Asante has been their best pass rusher by a mile, but he doesn't have anyone playing at that level with him. Because of this, I'm anticipating a conservative game by the Auburn defense. Asante will come on plenty of rushes, but they want to force Michael Hawkins into bad decisions where he's throwing into coverage. With a group of almost exclusively backups at receiver for OU, Auburn just has to put enough people in coverage to make it confusing for the Oklahoma offense. Expect a lot of cover-3 or cover-6 from the Auburn defense.

Prediction

Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn is among the most intimidating places to play in college football. It doesn't matter how good your team is or how bad Auburn is. Look at the Iron Bowl from the last decade when it was played in Auburn. That said, I expect Oklahoma to go in and take care of business defensively while doing enough offensively.

Oklahoma 26, Auburn 6

Oklahoma Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 160-200

• Rushing Yards: 80-130

• Total Yards: 240-330

Auburn Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 160-200

• Rushing Yards: 50-75

• Total Yards: 210-275

It's now or never for the Oklahoma offense. This is the time to get things figured out. After Auburn, we have a bye week, then we face Texas. We must get our act together if we want to stand a chance against our remaining schedule. Here's hoping it finally happens this week. Boomer!