Game Preview: Oklahoma State

We were bound to lose a game at some point this year. Every year, this team drops a game that they shouldn't. But you know what? That's ok. It is tough to go 12-0. Only a couple of teams pull it off each year. We've lost our game this year. It's time we rebound in the (potential) final Bedlam game and show the Sooner State who's boss.

Photo Credit to Tulsa's News 6.

Oklahoma

The Sooners are coming off their first loss of the season against unranked Kansas, who is now #22. All three aspects of the game were abysmal, and I'd imagine there's only one way to go from here. Below are the statistical leaders from week nine:

• Passing: Dillon Gabriel, 14-19, 171 yards, one interception.

• Rushing: Tawee Walker, 23 rushes, 146 yards, one touchdown.

• Receiving: Drake Stoops, four receptions, 76 yards.

• Tackling: Dasan McCullough, six tackles, all solo, one tackle for loss.

If you hear that your offense gained 440 yards, scored five touchdowns, and ran for almost 300 yards, you would think the team put on an offensive clinic. But that was not the case in the game against Kansas. After two poor throws to start the game, Jeff Lebby lost all faith (undeservedly so) in Dillon Gabriel's arm. I am predicting that changes this week. Last year, in the masterclass that was the first quarter against Oklahoma State, the way OU jumped out to such a commanding lead offensively was through the air. Despite not having Andrel Anthony anymore, Dillon Gabriel still has a loaded room of receivers. I'd imagine we throw the ball on about 70% of our plays. With Tawee Walker being a game-time decision and no other running back making a definitive "I'm the guy" statement, OU will need to rely heavily on the air attack. If Tawee Walker is our starter on Saturday, we might see more runs. But our offense will need a consistent air attack to beat Oklahoma State.

In the first four games of the season, Oklahoma allowed 8.5 points per game. In the four games that followed, they have allowed 29.5 points per game. Granted, one of those games was against the third-ranked Texas Longhorns. But in last week's game against Kansas, the 2022 defense had returned. We got very little penetration throughout the game; we left receivers wide open and could not tackle well. I lost track of the amount of times OU missed a tackle. I'm seriously hoping that changes this week. Given the running back we're about to face and the quarterback not being any definition of elite, I'm expecting to see a lot of man-coverage blitzes. We will have five or six rushers attacking the line of scrimmage almost every play defensively. The way our defense is going to help us beat Oklahoma State is by stopping at least 30-40% of OSU's plays at or behind the line of scrimmage. Brent Venables knows how to dial up pressure, and we will see a lot of it.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are coming off a blowout 45-13 win against Cincinnati, which earned them their fourth win in a row. After a terrible start to the 2023 season, the Cowboys are hot and on a roll. Below are their statistical leaders from week nine:

• Passing: Alan Bowman, 17-34, 286 yards, two touchdowns, one interception.

• Rushing: Ollie Gordon II, 25 rushes, 271 yards, two touchdowns.

• Receiving: Leon Johnson III, five catches, 149 yards.

• Tackling: Nickolas Martin, 12 tackles, four solo, one sack, two tackles for loss.

The Oklahoma State offense has done a complete 180 since the start of the season. At the beginning of the year, they didn't know who their QB was, and they couldn't run the ball. Now? They have a QB playing well and arguably the best running back in college football. Ollie Gordon II is a monster who is putting up Barry Sanders-like numbers. He is going to be the Cowboys entire gameplan going into Bedlam. I would imagine we see a 50/50 split of runs and passes. With Gordon providing such a threat in the running game and as a pass catcher, Oklahoma's defense will have to gameplan around him. That can open up passing lanes in play action when we expect a run and open up running lanes when we expect a pass. Don't forget Alan Bowman has faced Oklahoma multiple times at Texas Tech. In 2018, he torched our defense. His getting injured right around halftime is the only thing that slowed the Texas Tech offense down enough for OU to come back and win.

The Oklahoma State defense hasn't been elite this year, but they're not too bad, either. Their defensive numbers aren't too different from ours, with Oklahoma's run defense giving OU a big enough defensive edge. Mike Gundy is a defensive-minded coach (despite being a QB in college) who will always want to have a good defense. He runs a lot of zone defense to clog up passing lanes. On top of that, he has a good group of linebackers who put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. This is not a bad Oklahoma State defense, despite what we saw against South Alabama earlier in the season. Those linebackers won't pressure Gabriel too much, but they will do so enough to worry our offensive line.

Prediction

Numbers will tell you this should be a good game. Watching both teams play lately, it should be a close game. But Oklahoma has a history of rebounding against Oklahoma State. After a horrible couple of losses on the shoulders of the defense in 2022, the defense put on a clinic against Oklahoma State. In 2020, we were ranked lower than OSU and whooped them into next month. I'm not expecting that to change this year. Venables always seems to know how to play against OSU. I'm predicting OU to return to the look they had in the first half of the season and blow out Oklahoma State.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Oklahoma State 14

Oklahoma Yardage:

• Passing: 300-350

• Rushing: 140-180

• Total: 440-530

Oklahoma State Yardage:

• Passing: 200-220

• Rushing: 80-100

• Total: 280-320

This is our last year in the Big 12. This is our last Bedlam matchup for a long time. We already beat Tulsa this year. OSU is the last Oklahoma team we need to beat this year. If we get Danny Stutsman, Peyton Bowen, and Tawee Walker back at 100% this weekend, I genuinely think OSU doesn't stand a chance. If the OU defense isn't 100%, though, we could be in for a long game. Boomer Sooner!

All stats above courtesy of ESPN